Great analysis from Marco Arment about the misconception that developers will instantly flock to a new platform:

A common fallacy is assuming that any new platform in an exciting market — recently, smartphones and tablet computers — will be flooded with developers as soon as it’s released, as if developers are just waiting outside the gates, hungrily waiting to storm in.

In two recent cases, that’s exactly what happened: the iPhone and the iPad. (And probably the Mac App Store next.) So important people, including the tech press, consumers, and many hardware manufacturers themselves, assume that every new hardware platform will be greeted with the same rush of high-quality software.

It’s really worth reading the full article, which proposes that the iPhone and iPad development ecosystem is thriving so much for three reasons: dogfooding, install base and profitability. And he concludes with this question:

Now, consider this fall’s tablet computers. Can you say with confidence thatany of them will address these three needs well enough, and for enough developers, to ensure a steady supply of quality software?

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